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2013年11月21日星期四

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Someone needs to explain to a few conservative bloggers what satire looks like.gucci outlet online Your first clue might be when it mentions dates that are in the future.
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We are clearly at a very weird phase of this process, as David Kurtz explains here.cheap gucci belts I’m not going to pretend I’ve got anything that resembles clarity, but I’m being told by a normally trustworthy source that at last night’s White House meeting, the President referred to the triggered public option as one of the ideas on the table that he is willing to consider. Which is sort of what he has been saying about it all along. UPDATE: Jonathan Cohn’s take on the scrambled state of play. UPDATE2: And this bit of clarity from the House: A source there confirms that Nancy Pelosi does not yet have the votes for the so-called robust public option (one whose reimbursement rates are tied directly to Medicare rates).gucci handbag for sale The alternative, weaker version would have the new program negotiating rates with providers, which means it would operate more like a private insurance company. The House Democratic Caucus did something very unusual in their private meeting this morning; they took a roll call, and asked each member there to state where they stood on the public option. However, a large number of members were absent, so it is unclear how short they are of the votes they need. Also, at her news conference this morning, Pelosi said for the first time that she would have no objection to an idea being kicked around in the Senate, one in which states would have the ability to opt-out of the public option.louis vuitton handbags for sale UPDATE3: What Ezra Klein is hearing. My head hurts.
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2013年11月20日星期三

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Rick Santorum found himself in unfamiliar territory on Wednesday night: at the center of attention in a Republican primary debate.fake chanel shoes The CNN forum in Arizona was the first in almost a month, and the only debate held since upsets in Minnesota and Colorado put Santorum in the top-tier of contention with Mitt Romney. And while the former Senator has shown competence on the dais, the new level of scrutiny threw him off-balance. A threatened Romney was not a cowed Romney; he was on Santorum from the outset: “Voting for the debt ceiling five different times without voting for compensating cuts,” he said of Santorum’s congressional record. “Voting to fund Planned Parenthood, voting to expand the Department of Education.fake louis vuitton During his term in the Senate spending grew by some 80% of the federal government.” (MORE: Grading the Mesa Republican Debate) Santorum went into a defensive crouch, adroit with his counterpoints at first. He ripped Romney on taxes and spoke about his own record at length. But Romney’s attacks were quick and pithy.louis vuitton handbags for sale And Santorum’s parries lagged as the night wore on. When the conversation switched to earmarks and Santorum criticized him for seeking government assistance for the Salt Lake City Olympic Games, Romney said, “When I was fighting to save the Olympics, you were fighting to save the ‘Bridge to Nowhere,’”? in reference to the $400 million exemplar of congressional graft. Santorum delivered a apologia on congressional earmarking. When Romney defended his opposition to the 2009 auto industry rescue, Santorum accused him of hypocrisy in opposing a bailout for Detroit after supporting one for Wall Street.louis vuitton shoes replica “Nice try, but now let’s look at the facts,” Romney said before firing off a few lines on Santorum’s votes in support of airlines and the steel industry. Santorum again defended his record at length. (MORE: In the National Spotlight, Santorum Doesn??t Shy Away from Social Issues) Even in debating the health care reforms he enacted in Massachusetts, which are similar to the tenets of President Obama’s national overhaul, Romney managed to turn the conversation to Santorum’s past. First, he noted that Santorum endorsed him in 2008, long after CommonwealthCare was on the books.fake gucci shoes Then he made the audacious argument that it was Santorum’s 2004 endorsement of Arlen Specter, who later switched parties and voted with Obama, that led to the federal legislation’s passage. “He voted for ObamaCare. If you had not supported him, if we had said no to Arlen Specter, we would not have ObamaCare,” Romney said. “So don’t look at me, take a look in the mirror.handbags louis vuitton” And then there were the unforced errors. When asked by an audience member about his stance on No Child Left Behind, George W. Bush’s education law, Santorum volunteered that his vote for it was pure political expediency. “It was against the principles I believed in,” he said.chanel outlet “But, you know, when you’re part of the team, sometimes you take one for the team.” A different point about contraception??Santorum is personally opposed to the practice, but would not seek to ban it??came out sounding similarly squishy. “I have a personal moral objection” to contraception, he said, “but I’ve voted for bills that included it too.” (MORE: Rick Santorum’s Roll) Santorum was by no means feckless in Wednesday’s debate.louis vuitton replica He actually had one of the better lines of the night, poking holes in Romney’s frequent boast that he balanced the budget every year as governor of Massachusetts: ??Don??t go around bragging about something you have to do,?? he said in reference to the state’s constitutional requirement of a balanced budget. ??Michael Dukakis balanced the budget for 10 years. Does that make him qualified to be president of the United States? I don??t think so.?? But he was still clearly adjusting to his new place at center stage of the Republican primary.fake louis vuitton With the last debate before crucial contests next Tuesday in Michigan and Arizona??possibly the final debate of the primary season??now over, Santorum may lack the venue to give voters another impression.
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National Review editor Rich Lowry, writing in the new issue of TIME on the social implications of the decline of marriage, has a suggestion: No one wants to be preachy about marriage when everyone knows its inevitable frustrations.gucci handbag for sale (“Marriage is a wonderful institution,” H.L. Mencken said, “but who would want to live in an institution?”) At the very least, though, we should provide the facts about the importance of marriage as a matter of child welfare and economic aspiration. As a society, we have launched highly effective public-education campaigns on much less momentous issues, from smoking to recycling.louis vuitton backpack for sale It’s not hard to think of a spokeswoman. Michelle Obama is the daughter in a traditional two-parent family and the mother in another one that even her husband’s critics admire. If she took up marriage as a cause, she could ultimately have a much more meaningful impact on the lives of children than she will ever have urging them to do jumping jacks. Read the whole thing.ugg boots outlet
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Republicans fret about the tenor of their primary.loui vuitton Economic optimism rises. Santorum quietly runs negative ads against Romney in Michigan. They’re running near even. The operatives running super PACs are getting rich off them.louis vuitton shoes replica The stock market has boomed under Democratic Presidents. Larry Summers kept a bigger stimulus proposal off Obama’s desk. At McDonnell’s urging, Virginia amends abortion bill to strip out mandatory internal ultrasounds. And New Mexico’s governor loses her hair stylist.fake louis vuitton shoes
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2013年11月19日星期二

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Whether or not Newt Gingrich can carry on a real campaign against Mitt Romney for several more weeks or even months depends in large measure on his political guardian angel, the Las Vegas casino billionaire and fierce Israel hawk Sheldon Adelson.fake ugg boots Adelson’s camp won’t say whether the mogul will donate any money beyond the $10 million that he and his wife have already given to the pro-Newt Super PAC Winning Our Future, whose advertising has provided a kind of life support for Gingrich’s poorly-funded campaign. One thing we know is that Adelson still has a lot of money to give. By my math, that $10 million represents about .046% of Adelson’s $21.fake louis vuitton shoes5 billion fortune as estimated by Forbes. But we know two other things. One is that Adelson wants to see Barack Obama lose in November. The other is that he does not dislike Mitt Romney.gucci handbag for sale Some people might assume Adelson to be an unusually rich member of the GOP’s anyone-but-Mitt society. Not so, an Adelson associate told me when I profiled the man for last week’s issue. “He is fond of Governor Romney,” the associate said. “He’s made it clear that in no way, shape or form is [Adelson's support of Gingrich] meant to signal dissatisfaction with governor Romney or his campaign.gucci handbag for sale” Specifically, Adelson does not have qualms about Romney’s views of Israel and Middle East policy, which is what seems to drive Adelson’s politics. (Click here to see a shot of Romney schmoozing with Adelson–who, I’ll admit, seems to be regarding the candidate with some skepticism–at a Republican Jewish Coalition meeting at Adelson’s Venetian hotel and casino last April.) Adelson has backed Gingrich out of friendship and loyalty, and perhaps slight policy preference–Gingrich is more strident than Romney on Israel policy–but not because he dislikes or fears Romney. (VIDEO: Election 2012 ?? Beyond Florida) Consider that context, then, when you read stories indicating that Adelson is gently backing away from Gingrich.chanel handbags for sale To some degree this may be Adelson showing his discomfort with media attention. But I suspect there’s more to it. Like many conservative Jewish-Americans, Adelson believes that Obama won’t guarantee the safety and survival of Israel, and that Romney and Newt will. At this point, logic dictates an obvious path forward.fake louis vuitton shoes If Adelson doesn’t see a great difference between Gingrich and Romney on Israel, but does see a vast gulf between both Republican candidates and Obama, then he should turn his attention towards beating the President. And by most appraisals, that means telling Newt he’s had his chance and it’s time to rally around the likely nominee, Mitt Romney. I can’t say that’s what will happen. Billionaires aren’t always paragons of rational, clear-headed thinking.handbags louis vuitton And Adelson’s personal loyalty to Gingrich might trump such political calculations. But you can bet that Establishment Republicans across the country are pleading for Adelson to stop giving his chips to Gingrich when there’s a player with better odds to stake.
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Some Obama opponents are struggling to find a cloud in the silver lining of January??s jobs numbers, which estimated that there was a 243,000-job boost and a big drop in the unemployment rate, from 8.cheap gucci belts5% to 8.3%, last month. Their biggest gripe focuses on the size of the labor force: As the unemployment rate has trended down over the last few months, anti-Obama commentators have argued that the official percentage for those without jobs is deceptive because the Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn??t count those who have stopped looking for work. In Friday’s report, they found a sharp increase in that group: More than 1.loui vuitton2 million people joined the non-job seeking pool of working-age Americans last month. (Video:?What It Took to Create a Job for One Bright Engineer) I was ready to join the pessimists Friday morning when I saw the sharp drop in the unemployment rate, but for a different reason. The January unemployment report, I had been forewarned by BLS, was the first to be based on models using 2010 census figures. (All these numbers are guestimations based on surveys of smaller samples taken around the country).gucci outlet online A big shift up or down in the unemployment rate, I thought, could be explained by the change in the overall population of the country, reflected in the census numbers. (MORE:?Good News: Unemployment Falls to 8.3% as U.S.louis vuitton outlet online Adds 243,000 Jobs) But the census adjustments actually work against my theory and that of the Obama-detractors. The demographic adjustments had no effect on the unemployment rate, says Mary Bowler, the resident expert in these matters at the BLS. And when it comes to labor force estimates, the steep jump in the number of those not seeking work came entirely from the census adjustment, which added 1.25 million people to that group.louis vuitton handbags for sale If you take out the census adjustment, the labor force numbers stayed essentially the same, as reflected by the labor force participation rate of 63.7%. In other words, the spike in the number of people no longer looking for work is entirely the result of some people at the Labor Department adding numbers to their spread sheets rather than an actual observed shift anywhere in the real economy. In recent months there have been other reasons to be pessimistic about the economy and about the unemployment numbers, but January’s report offers good news in those areas as well.louis vuitton outlet online Even though consumer sentiment and retail sales have been improving over the last few months, some economists argued that the economy could never really turn the corner until the housing market cleared the millions of pending foreclosures that are keeping housing prices low and mortgage holders underwater. The latest employment numbers suggest a turnaround may be underway in housing even though the foreclosure bulge is still working its way through the economy. The January jobs report showed a sharp improvement in housing employment, says Jed Kolko, an economist at Trulia. Construction employment was up 3.replica gucci shoes9% compared to three months ago. Kolko also points to a big jump in youth employment, as the unemployment rate for 25-34 year-olds dropped to 9% from 9.4% in December. That age group is the prime demographic for changing housing demand.fake gucci shoes And just as a final kick in the teeth to those of us who tend to look at the glass as half empty, the Institute for Supply Management on Friday reported that factory orders were up 1.1% in December, suggesting job growth may continue, at least in the manufacturing sector, as producers hire more workers to meet demand. All in all, it was a very grim day for serial pessimists, this writer included.
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Ron Paul is aiming high in Saturday’s Nevada caucus.fake louis vuitton The conventional wisdom states that Mitt Romney has the Silver State and its 28 nominating delegates in his pocket, following his massive 51% share of the vote in the 2008 primary. Four years ago, Paul came in second with just 14%. Still, the Paul campaign has been playing hard in Nevada while other candidates were traipsing across Florida, and campaign manager Jesse Benton believes they’ll be rewarded. “We have a shot at first place,” he says.louis vuitton backpack for sale Paul might have a shot, but polls suggest it’s not a good one. A survey released by the University of Nevada on Thursday showed Paul in fourth place with 9% of likely caucus-goers’ support, compared to Romney’s 45%; one quarter broke for Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum. Of the Mormon’s polled, 86% said they were casting ballots for Romney; only 1% cited Paul as their man. A survey from left-leaning Public Policy Polling, released on Friday, put Paul in third place, taking 15% of the vote, to Romney’s 50%, Gingrich’s 25% and Santorum’s 8%.gucci handbag for sale There’s also a potential demographic disadvantage built in: a big chunk of caucus votes on Saturday will come from Mormons. In 2008, about a quarter of caucus-goers were Mormons, and they broke 95% for Romney. The only religious group that Paul won was “no religion.” But Team Paul is hoping to change things this year.gucci handbag for sale “[Mormons] have a natural attraction to someone who is a member of their church, but I think philosophically and politically, they??re much closer to Dr. Paul,” Benton says.? “Mormons are very, very committed to Constitutional government [and] Mormons are much more politically conservative than governor Romney.” The Paul campaign has sent out many press releases touting “LDS for Ron Paul” supporters in recent weeks??even if the polls don’t show them making much of a dent.fake louis vuitton Long odds are what Paul is used to. He’s been campaigning in Maine, where a win in the caucus that ends Feb. 11 does not guarantee any delegates.? After Nevada, he’ll head to Minnesota and on to other minor states like North Dakota, Missouri, Colorado and Louisiana.gucci handbag for sale “We play our hand,” Benton says, “and we play our hand to win.” Even when it looks like they won’t.
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2013年11月13日星期三

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Following a now familiar pattern in the GOP nominating contest, Rick Santorum’s Feb.loui vuitton 7 hat trick and sudden surge in the Michigan primary polls have motivated Mitt Romney’s ad men. Restore Out Future, the Romney-backing super PAC, has bought more than $800,000 of TV time in Michigan, slathering local broadcasts with the same caustic goo that corroded Newt Gingrich’s candidacy in Iowa and Florida. “Washington insider” will be the two words heard most by Michiganders in the next two weeks. But, despite his campaign’s massive fundraising disadvantage, words of praise for Santorum won’t be far behind.fake louis vuitton The Red, White and Blue Fund, a super PAC backing Santourm, has lined up nearly $700,000 in TV ads for Michigan. That’s not much less that the Romney PAC’s total and it could counteract Romney’s potent attack. This is no small thing. As Slate‘s Dave Weigel pointed out in a smart piece earlier this week, super PACs, despite their arch-villainous depiction in some circles, are leveling the field in the Republican primary spending wars.louis vuitton backpack for sale Add in the super PAC money and the advantage fades. Romney??s campaign had outspent Newt Gingrich??s campaign by a 7-2 margin and outspent Rick Santorum??s by a 19-1 margin. According to the Sunlight Foundation, which has tracked the super PACs all year, the Romney-centric Restore Our Future PAC outspent the pro-Gingrich Winning Our Future PAC only 2-1. It outspent the Santorum-philic Red, White and Blue fund by slightly better than 8-1, which was just what the PAC needed to spend to get its candidate into an Iowa tie.louis vuitton speedy Add to this the sudden celebrity of super PAC donors like walking slots jackpot Sheldon Adelson and noted 19th century women’s health expert Foster Freiss, and there’s a case that super PACs are increasing transparency as well by simple virtue of the attention they’re getting. Transparency is really the issue here. Part of the backlash against super PACs is based on the conflation of soft money in general with changes in campaign finance law made by the 2010 Citizens United v. FEC ruling, which allowed corporations and unions to donate unlimited amounts.louis vuitton speedy Campaign finance reform advocates worry that unlimited corporate giving allows the origin of donations to be obscured. And that does happen with super PACs. But much of Santorum’s PAC money is coming from Freiss, and many people know exactly who he is. Plenty more will know after Thursday’s aspirin incident.louis vuitton belts
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I’ve always thought that one of the most annoying aspects of running for President must involve the amount of unsolicited advice you get.chanel outlet Everyone thinks they’re a political genius who sees the obvious angle no one else “gets.” A story in Thursday’s New York Times featured an anecdote in which the right-wing news mogul Christopher Ruddy complained that Romney showed an obvious “lack of interest” in his advice about how to schmooze other conservative pundits. The story implied that Romney is a bad politician. Or maybe he’s just sick of hearing everyone’s half-baked ideas all the time.handbags louis vuitton Regardless, Romney has never been barraged with more advice than right now, in this moment of crisis for his candidacy. Just flip on any cable talk show. In the new issue of TIME, Mike Murphy chimes in with his own two bits ?? although as a seasoned operative and someone who has advised Romney before, he delivers some of the best analysis and counsel I’ve read. Romney would do well to consider it.ugg boots outlet Much of the other advice coming his way, however, isn’t very good. And so my only counsel is that Romney ignore most of it. Here are three things in particular that Romney should not do if he wants to salvage his listing candidacy: Don’t lurch right! Conservatives are pressing Romney to adopt more, shall we say, severe issue positions. The Wall Street Journal, for instance, has been pressing him to present a revised tax plan that would offer deeper tax cuts on wealthy Americans’ investments.louis vuitton replica But taxes are a losing issue for Republicans right now, which is one reason House Republicans just caved on the payroll-tax cut. Romney’s current tax plan, which offers huge high-end breaks, will already be a hard sell in the fall; he needn’t make it any harder. The same goes for several other issues, from entitlements to immigration, on which he might want to outflank Rick Santorum but which could make him even less popular with independents. As I’ve argued before, Romney wants to be just conservative enough to win this nomination, so that he stands a chance of getting elected in November.ugg boots outlet Don’t roll out a “new Mitt”! Murphy argues that Romney should “stop thinking and calculating and get stupid.” I take him to mean that Romney should display more heart, spontaneity and authenticity. That’s fine, but it actually has to come from the heart ?? not some version of his heart that’s displayed to a focus group and then edited and revised for public consumption. It has to seem natural because it is natural.gucci handbag for sale A conspicuous “reinvention” would only make Romney look desperate and ridiculous and would underscore his existing air of inauthenticity. (Although I’m afraid the real Mitt can be pretty silly too.) No new campaign slogan, wardrobe, theme song or calculated demonstration of some previously unknown charming hobby ?? say, an Angry Birds addiction. Romney should be especially careful about trying to retreat from his established image as a successful businessman, as some people have advised.fake uggs Competent management is his calling card; if it’s not the right year for it, then too bad. The obvious alternative subjects ?? governing Massachusetts, serving as a Mormon missionary in France ?? are hardly the answer. Don’t stop attacking! Having witnessed the way Romney pulverized Newt Gingrich with attack ads in Iowa and then again in Florida, Santorum is trying to turn Romney’s negative tactics back against him. It’s true that Romney’s unfavorables have shot up, one natural side effect of negative campaigning (though there are other potential explanations as well).ugg boots outlet But once he’s dispatched his last serious rival, he can recover with a stretch of relentless positivity. And there’s good reason to think harsh advertising can save him again. Santorum may lack Gingrich’s operatic liabilities. But his record is less pure than many Republicans must assume.chanel handbags for sale Santorum was rarely criticized in the debates, after all, and has never been the target of a sustained negative ad campaign. He’s also a former Senator, and Senators make for especially fat targets, with their long voting records that are far easier to lampoon than to defend. (For instance, Romney is now ripping Santorum for repeatedly voting to raise the debt limit, something Congress did routinely for years; never mind that Romney himself almost certainly would have wound up doing the same thing if he’d beaten Ted Kennedy in 1994.) And a little damage will go a long way.louis vuitton handbags for sale Romney trails Santorum by only a few points nationally but by perhaps 10 points in the new showdown state of Michigan. Gingrich was at least as strong at his peak. Rombo should use his financial advantage to blast away; he’s sure to damage Santorum far more than himself.
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Newt Gingrich is promising to build NASA colonies on the moon.gucci handbag for sale Mitt Romney is imagining Fidel Castro in “a nether region,” which one can only assume is a polite Mormon phrase for hell. Both men are all over the radio, putting on their best Spanish accents. No point in diluting the pandering: this is Florida, the primary big leagues, with more votes at stake than in the past three contests combined. And the latest TIME/CNN poll shows the two pack leaders running even.louis vuitton outlet online Here’s why Tuesday’s consequential Florida primary is totally different from anything the 2012 GOP race has seen so far. It’s a closed primary. That means Democrats and independents can’t vote and there are no last-minute registration options as there were in Iowa. (The registration books for the GOP presidential primary closed Jan.chanel handbags for sale 3.) This is most likely to disadvantage Romney, who’s performed relatively well with Republican-leaning independents to date, and Ron Paul, who collected a lot of atypical GOP primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s one of the reasons Paul’s not contesting Florida at all. There’s absentee voting.louis vuitton belts About half of the 520,000 Florida Republicans who’ve requested advance ballots have already cast their votes by mail. While that’s not a huge chunk of the electorate–1.9 million Republicans voted in the 2008 GOP primary–it probably gives Romney a slight edge given the dynamics of the race to date. For much of? January, Newt was near the nadir of his epic 30-point collapse in the Florida polls, from which he’s now almost fully recovered.fake louis vuitton Romney and his allies spent heavily on TV therre during that period, while Gingrich and Co. had to yet to purchase a single spot. But there’s early voting, too. In-person ballot-casting started right after Gingrich’s big South Carolina win and more than 120,000 voters have turned up this week.gucci handbag for sale Media afterglow has helped Newt’s poll numbers and another fat $5 million check to Gingrich’s PAC from casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and wife Miriam has given Gingrich a significant presence on TV. Even so, ad spending totals are weighted heavily in Romney’s favor. According to NBC News, Romney and his allies have spent a total of $14.4 million on Florida ads to date.louis vuitton handbags for sale Team Gingrich has spent just $1.9 million, most of it from the Adelson-fueled super PAC. Florida advertising is really expensive. TV time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is penny-saver cheap compared to Florida.louis vuitton speedy Seven of its metro areas are among the 100 largest media markets in the country, including three–Tampa-St. Petersburg, Miami-Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne–that fall into the top 20. Romney’s cash advantage could end up making all the difference.louis vuitton handbags for sale And there’s quite a difference when it comes to first place or second place in Florida. It’s winner takes all. Well, winner takes half. Um, probably.louis vuitton handbags for sale The Republican Party of Florida broke some RNC rules by moving up the date of its primary and was thus stripped of half its 99 nominating delegates at this year’s convention (in Tampa!), which the RPOF has decided to award in their entirety to the primary winner ?? which is another potential RNC no-no. The winner-take-all nature of the contest (as well as closed primary rules, prohibitive costs, etc.) have kept Paul out of the race, rendered Santorum a non-factor and set up an all-or-nothing scenario for Romney or Gingrich: whoever ends up finishing second will leave Florida with nothing to show for their huge investment. However, there are now rumblings of a legal challenge to try to force the RPOF to award its delegates proportionally.louis vuitton handbags for sale But it won’t be settled anytime soon. Florida helped seal Romney’s fate in 2008. After losing to Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Romney entered Florida four years ago desperate for a win. He didn’t get it.chanel outlet McCain took 36% of the vote to Romney’s 31%, and with it, all 57 delegates. McCain won in part on the strength of Florida’s Latino (mostly Cuban) Republicans, of which he claimed an outright majority, and the effectiveness of his electability argument. This time, Romney is the perceived moderate with the electability argument and, lo and behold, he’s nearing majority support among Latino Republicans in the state. In 2008, the knockout blow didn’t come till Super Tuesday, but Florida, as always, was a political haymaker.ugg boots outlet
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